Dynamics of Violent Conflict

Violent conflict is certainly one of the most significant impediments to sustainable development. Besides the more immediate effects on human life such as war casualties and the expulsion as well as escape of large groups of refugees, violence also effects societies in the medium and long term. For example, mutual trust between different groups in society is destroyed in the course of violent action and poses a serious obstacle for more favourable economic and social relations. Violent conflict also has severe effects on issues such as health, education and thus on the future shape of society as such.

Hence, a major focus of the research group “Governance and Conflict” is on dynamics of violent conflict in developing countries. Rather than scrutinising the above mentioned effects of violence, we are more concerned with the causes and courses of violent action. Violence or violent conflict here means “physical harm imposed on other persons and/or objects”. On the other hand, conflict means “an action based on the perception of incompatible interests between two or more persons". Conflicts are part and parcel of any society and are indispensable for social change and the expression of individual interests. Violent conflict, however, is not a natural and self-explanatory outgrowth of conflict that inevitably occurs once conflicts reach a certain intensity. Violence most often has its specific dynamics that might become independent from previously existing (political) conflicts. As a result, it remains insufficient to illustrate what kind of conflicts precede collective violence, but it is crucial to explain the shift from non-violent to violent modes of conflict, that is, why certain conflicts eventually lead to violent action. This is one of the main objectives of our research projects.

More specifically, our research interest is in analysing and explaining:

the dynamics of violence and the steps of escalation: our research projects are concerned, for example, with the development and institutionalisation of violent conflict in Afghanistan and South Africa. Hence, our research interest is not only on contemporary modes of violent action but we explicitly focus on the historical backgrounds of violence and analyse the trajectory of violent conflict in the last few decades.
the role of key actors and key incidents in the switch from conflict to violence: what is often negatively termed “warlords” are some of the key actors we are focusing on in our research projects. Entrepreneurs of violence can be found in any violent conflict-setting. Due to their strategy of instrumentalising political conflicts they are amongst the most significant driving forces in the dynamics of violent action.
the (explicit and hidden) structures and rules of violence: “warlordism”, clientelism and strongly hierarchical relations of patronage form an important basis of violent conflict because economic and political motives are closely linked with violent action. Furthermore, processes of revenge are a – although often neglected – key feature of the dynamics of violence.
the impact of processes of violence on the institutions and structure of society: besides the above mentioned effects of violent conflict on social relations, health and education, one of our research interests is on the interlinkages between violence and various forms of serious crime.

Whereas the processes resulting in the escalation of violence form the main part of our research agenda, a further point of interest is in the de-escalation of the dynamics of violent action. Possible avenues of preventing and/or managing processes of violence are scrutinised and highlighted in this context. These empirical findings are then disseminated to (inter)national agencies and political actors engaged in the reconstruction of war-torn societies. Still, our viewpoint is that recommendations for the prevention and/or management of violent conflict are first of all in urgent need of a thorough understanding of the dynamics of violence.

From a methodological point of view the focus is on single case studies respectively small-n comparisons because these are more suitable for an in-depth understanding of dynamics of violent conflict compared with large-n studies. The research projects take into account the national and provincial as well as local political level and scrutinise in particular the interlinkages and mutual influences of the different echelons of society.

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