Bio-economic Model of small-scale farmers' production decisions and technology choice in the Eastern Amazon

Objectives:
The general objective of the subproject is the evaluation of agro-environmental policies and alternative technologies, such as the mulching technique, with respect to their impact on land use as well as on household income and local markets. A quantitative assessment of these impacts through a multiple agent programming model shall help to identify adequate policies to enhance both sustainable land use and poverty alleviation.

Approach:
A Linear Programming Model developed by Vosti et al. serves as a starting point for the subproject. The model will have to be adapted and calibrated based on the peculiarities of the study region. The same model approach will be used to represent typical farm types by changing initial conditions and technical coefficients according to a taxonomy of farming systems based on a statistical analysis of survey data. The role of risk in investment decisions and as a reason for the diversification of activities shall play a major role at this stage of the analysis.

In a second step it is planned to extend the analysis including interactions of small-scale (family) farmers via local output markets and social networks. Berger (2000) used a similar approach, known as multiple agent modeling, to analyze land markets and technology diffusion in Chile.

Expected Output:
In general, the model is expected to improve the understanding of family agriculture in the study region by,

1. explaining how the introduction of the mulching technique and alternative techniques translate into land use and income changes and,
2. explaining the role of exogenous factors, such as prices and market access, in this setting.

The latter, in particular, will be useful in defining adequate policies to foster sustainability and poverty alleviation, which is another expected output. As another result of the model building phase "typical farm units" will be identified and classified.  

Specialisation / Discipline

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