Merveille Koissi Savi
Working Title: "Host-Vector-Parasite System Dynamics Analysis for Enhancing Malaria Control in Accra, Ghana"
Research Countries: Ghana
Research Themes: health and sanitation, vector control
Abstract:
Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounting for more than 50% mortality causes. The transmission of the disease is mediated by complex interactions between the components of the system including the vector, the host, and the parasite. The life cycle of both the vector and the parasite depends on the behavior and socio-economic determinants of the host as well as on environmental factors. Classical malaria modeling approaches using either knowledge-driven or data-driven methods were useful to explain past epidemic burden but have a limited scope to predict the upcoming events. Therefore, results generated by such processes usually lead to policy recommendations that often do not fit real-life situation. Moreover, basic assumptions of classical modeling approaches namely the homogeneity, finite and close population and the homogenous host bitten exacerbate the inaccuracy of model predictions. Classical malaria models focused on either the host, vectors or parasites where the interaction between them is weakly considered. The current study aims at shedding the light on the dynamics of malaria transmission in the real-life situation in Accra using a problem-solving approach. The study will combine participatory approaches and system analysis to give insights on different pathways that could be used to reinforce the control of the epidemic. Furthermore, it will assess the capacity of a part of subsystems to predict the outcome of the entire system. As expected results, the system will be formulated and will be simulated. The results of the dynamics of malaria transmission will be used to address niche policy recommendations for an effective control of malaria.
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