Speculation
Financial volume in agricultural commodities has increased remarkably in the last decade. Agricultural commodities are not only used for hedging production and business risks but also as assets in the portfolio of investors. There is a large concern that speculations with agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybean increase prices or price volatility – and that speculations contributed to the 2007/08 food crises.
Our research focuses on the empirical links between speculation and prices. We work on constructive solutions that reconcile the beneficial aspects of futures markets for hedging, diversification and price formation with the need for price stabilization in times of food crisis.
Publications
Algieri, B. & Leccadito, A. (2021). Extreme price moves: an INGARCH approach to model coexceedances in commodity markets, European Review of Agricultural Economics, Volume 48(4): 878–914, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaa030
Algieri, B. (2016). Conditional price volatility, speculation, and excessive speculation in commodity markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour? International Review of Applied Economics, 30(2), pp. 210–237. [PDF]
Kalkuhl, M. (2015). "Spekulation mit Nahrungsmitteln, Regulierung und Selbstregulierung." in Aufderheide, D. and Dabrowski, M. (Hrsg.): Markt und Verantwortung - Wirtschaftsethische und moralökonomische Perspektiven. Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, Band 567 [PDF]
Algieri, B. and M. Kalkuhl (2014). Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers. ZEF Discussion Papers No. 195 [PDF]
Tadesse, G., B. Algieri, M. Kalkuhl, J. v. Braun (2013). Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. Food Policy. [Article]
Von Braun, J. and Tadesse, G. (2012) "An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions" ZEF Discusson Paper No. 161 [PDF]
Algieri, B. (2013) "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price" ZEF Discusson Paper No. 176 [PDF]
Algieri, B. (2012) " sheep or shepherd behaviour?" ZEF Discusson Paper No. 166 [PDF]
Von Braun, J. und Kalkuhl M. (2012) "Einfluss der Spekulationen auf den Finanz und Kapitalmärkten auf die Nahrungsmittelpreise und Vorschläge zu deren Eindämmung unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen EU Vorschläge" Anhörung Bundestag [PDF]
Further Information
