High prices provide incentives for farmers to increase production via acreage expansion or intensification. They induce investments into research and development which create and disseminate innovations to increase productivity. Price volatility, however, increases price risks and discourages investments into land and productivity. While producers in industrialized countries can often easily insure against these risks e.g. via futures contracts, small-holder farmers in developing countries face difficulties to cope with price risk.

Within the project, we analyze the impact of prices and price risks on global acreage and production. We focus on global aggregate as well as country-specific analysis of important producers and selected countries. The results are used to build short-term (1-6 months) forecasting models for area and production decisions.


  • Haile, M. G., T. Wossen, K. Tesfaye & J. von Braun (2017). Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 1(1), 55–75. [PDF]

  • Haile, M. G., J. Brockhaus & M. Kalkuhl (2016). Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries. Agricultural and Food Economics, 4(1), 17.

  • Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., von Braun, J. (2015): Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn and Soybeans, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97 (3) [PDF