The consequences of biodiversity loss and land use change on infectious disease emergence (ArboEmerge)

Methodology

Applying an inter-disciplinary approach, samples from mosquitoes, livestock, and humans in three less disturbed ecosystems (Bwindi Impenetrable, Queen Elizabeth, and Murchison National Parks) and adjacent disturbed urban areas (Kasese and Arua Cities) will undergo screening for pre-epidemic arboviruses. Identified arboviruses will undergo molecular and phenotypic characterization, and phylogenetic analysis to describe their intra- and inter-host genetic diversity. Using phylogeographic analyses, we will reconstruct the virus spatial movement and build ecological niche models that assess the influence of different socioeconomic and ecological factors on the risk of virus transmission and disease outbreaks. This will also enable modelling of virus and host distribution as well as infection risk under current and future climatic and land use scenarios. We will also apply Bayesian decision modelling approaches to assess the effectiveness of policy interventions in reducing the risk of outbreaks under current and future climatic and land use scenarios.