Maureen Nabatanzi

• Biodiversity
• Food and nutrition
• Agriculture, land use, climate change
• Health

• Uganda

Public health, Epidemiology, Zoonotic Diseases

Distribution of arboviruses under land use, biodiversity, and climate changes in Uganda

Environment, climate, and land-use changes modify ecosystems and in turn interactions between the environment, animals, and humans. Uganda hosts the Albertine Rift, rich in biodiversity and a hotspot for the emergence of novel pathogens and disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, Uganda is facing rapid deforestation, biodiversity loss, and climate change with potential consequences on the emergence of mosquito-borne (arboviral) diseases, which are not well understood. This study aims to model the distribution of mosquito-borne viral diseases across the vector, animals (livestock), and humans amidst changes in land use, biodiversity, and climate.

Study sites include biodiversity-rich National Parks (Bwindi Impenetrable, Queen Elizabeth, and Murchison National) and adjacent disturbed landscapes (Kasese and Arua Cities). Data will combine sequences of virus genomes, and social-economic-, environmental- and climatic factors from online databases. Using an interdisciplinary methodology, we will combine the phylogeography of viruses, ecological niche modeling of current and future habitat suitability, and Bayesian decision modeling to predict outbreak risk areas and define potential outbreak prevention policies. Our findings will describe the drivers and risks of arbovirus disease outbreaks and guide the design of prevention policies.