Renzo Giudice

Research themes
  • Environmental and climate change
  • Ecosystem services
  • Methods
Research countries
  • Peru
Research projects

Prodigy Project:

Working groups

Within Jun.-Prof. Jan Börner´s working group, which deals with questions on the optimal choice and design of environmental and tropical forest conservation policies with a specific focus on the Amazon region.

Thesis title

Is it working? A quantitative analysis of a conditional cash transfer mechanism to reduce deforestation, carbon emissions and to promote sustainable development

Thesis abstract

Carbon emissions from land use, land use change and forestry in Peru account for around 50% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Deforestation is the main cause of these emissions due to agriculture and cattle ranching in the Peruvian Amazon. As a contribution to climate change mitigation the Peruvian Government has communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change a goal of zero net deforestation of tropical forest by 2021. To achieve this goal, in 2010 the Peruvian Ministry of Environment of Peru designed and implemented the National Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) which aims to conserve forests and promote sustainable development by implementing sustainable production systems, monitoring and mapping forests and building conservation capacities among local governments and local peoples. To finance the production systems the NFCP provides conditional cash transfers to indigenous peoples who voluntarily agree to conserve part of their titled forest lands. To date we do not know whether after almost five years, the CCT has been effective in reducing deforestation within participating communities and at what cost. The general objective of this study is to contribute to the understanding of the effective design and implementation of environmental public policy tools to reduce deforestation, and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions, and to increase human welfare in tropical regions of developing countries. Specifically, I will conduct an impact evaluation of the NFCP on reducing deforestation within native communities’ lands to find out whether the CCT has caused any emissions reductions due to avoided deforestation. I also plan to explore the causes of why deforestation might have either been reduced or not. To complement this approach, I will assess the cost effectiveness of the CCT mechanism and develop a cost-benefit analysis to assess broader economic implications. As a second step, I plan to model and evaluate different design options to improve the program´s impacts. Finally, I will explore the necessary legal and budgetary conditions to implement the potential improvements identify in the previous step.


Guidice, R. and J. Börner.  2021.  Benefits and costs of incentive-based forest conservation in the Peruvian Amazon.  Forest Policy and Economics , 131   : 102559   . (Open Access)   Further Information


Giudice R., J. Börner, S. Wunder and E. Cisneros.  2019.  Selection biases and spillovers from collective conservation incentives in the Peruvian Amazon.  Environ. Res. Lett., DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aafc83   . Further Information


Jan Börner, Sven Wunder, Renzo Giudice.  2016.  Will up-scaled forest conservation incentives in the Peruvian Amazon produce cost-effective and equitable outcomes?.  Environmental Conservation, 4 (43)   : 407-416   . Further Information


Potapov, Dempewolf, Talero, Hansen, Stehman, Vargas, Rojas, Castillo, Mendoza, Calderon, Giudice, Malaga, Zutta.  2014.  National satellite-based humid tropical forest change assessment in Peru in support of REDD+ implementation.  Environmental Research Letters, 9(12)   . (Open Access)   Further Information


Renzo Giudice, Britaldo S. SOares-Filho, Frank Merry, Hermann O. Rodrigues, Maria Bowman.  2012.  Timber concessions in Madre de Dios: Are they a good deal?.  Ecological Economics, 77   : 158-165   . Further Information


Chris Kirkby, Renzo Giudice, Brett Day, Kerry Turner, Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho, Hermann Oliveira-Rodrigues, Douglas W. Yu.  2011.  Closing the ecotourism-conservation loop in the Peruvian Amazon.  Environmental Conservation, 38(1)   : 6-17   . Further Information


Chris Kirkby, Renzo Giudice, Brett Day, Kerry Turner, Luz Marina Velarde, Agusto Dueñas, Juan Carlos Lara, Douglas W. Yu.  2010.  The Market Triumph of Ecotourism: An Economic Investigation of the Private and Social Benefits of Competing Land Uses in the Peruvian Amazon.  PLoS ONE, 5(9)   . (Open Access)   Further Information

Additionals, Curriculum Vitae
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Junior Researcher

+49-228-73-0228 73-1816

Department :
ZEF B: Department of Economic and Technological Change

renzogiudice(at), rgiudice(at)