Public Lecture by Nader S. Kabbani (Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Senior Fellow, Brookings Global Economy and Development Program)

March 5, 2020 | 13:30 h - 14:30 h

Speaker: Nader S. Kabbani (Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Senior Fellow, Brookings Global Economy and Development Program)

Topic: Causes, Consequences, and Future Directions of the Conflict in Syria - Prepared for the Economic Research Forum’s Program on “Conflict, peace-building and post-conflict reconstruction in conflict affected Arab countries”

Venue: Center of Development Research (ZEF), Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, right conference room, ground floor.

Abstract:

Syria today is at a crossroads and it is not clear which paths may lead to stability and positive development outcomes for the country. This paper provides a critical examination of the key issues and alternatives surrounding the post-conflict agenda in Syria. First, the paper reviews various hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of the conflict in order to arrive at a better understanding of the combination of factors that contributed to its eruption and expansion. Second, the paper reviews the impact of the conflict on the Syrian economy and society in order to identify priority areas for post-conflict stability and economic recovery. Third, the paper maps propositions involving post-conflict stability and economic recovery in order to distill those that have the potential to be considered seriously by policy actors, that adhere to core development principles, and that adequately address the underlying causes of conflict and priority areas. The paper finds that a narrow path forward exists involving an incremental and iterative approach focusing on second-best options. Indeed, the prevailing focus on whether or not to engage in large-scale post-conflict reconstruction is the wrong place to start. The more effective alternative is for international aid to target smaller stabilization efforts and sector-specific redevelopment projects that can be more easily monitored to ensure that assistance is reaching people most in need, and then to slowly, iteratively build from there.