Lecture on “The value of future – prediction in disease modelling”
March 12, 2015 | 11:00 h - 12:00 h
We cordially invite you to our next Public Lecture with the following speaker:
Prof. Dr. Steffen Fleßa, Professor of Economics and Health Care Management at the University of Greifswald
on “The value of future – prediction in disease modelling”
Date: Thursday, March 12, 2015, 11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Venue: Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung / Center for Development Research (ZEF), Walter-Flex-Straße 3, 53113 Bonn (see <link>map). Right conference room.
Abstract:
Resource-poor countries have to invest their scarce health care resources efficiently in order to reduce the morbidity and mortality in their countries. The allocation of resources is not only an inter-sectoral and inter-regional but also an inter-temporal and inter-generational challenge. For this purpose the prognosis of future epidemiological and economic developments is crucial for any health economic analysis and political decision-making. Based on Markov and disease dynamics models we demonstrate how the prognosis of costs of diseases has a major influence on the efficient allocation. For this purpose we present results from our research in the fields of Aids, malaria, diabetes and cervical cancer. It becomes obvious that the prognosis of economic development has an existential dimension in resource-poor countries. Whether an allocation is “good” or “bad” depends on the perspective, including time horizon and time preference. Economics needs predication models to contribute to a transparent and evidence-based decision-making on scarce resources for the well-being of humans.
Speaker:
<link http: www.rsf.uni-greifswald.de flessa personen lehrstuhlinhaber.html>Dr. Fleßa is Professor of Economics and Health Care Management at the University of Greifswald. He is chairing various academic advisory bodies on international Public Health and his work has a focus on Africa. Before joining the University of Greifswald in 2004, Fleßa worked several years in Tanzania.
Entrance to the lecture is free, no registration is required. We are looking forward to seeing you at ZEF on March 12!
